January 31, 2008

SAP 4Q slips, but revenue rises

FRANKFURT, Germany - Software maker SAP AG said Wednesday its profit slipped in the fourth quarter even as sales edged higher, and forecast revenue growth from software sales and services of about 14 percent in 2008.

The Walldorf-based company, whose programs help companies do back-office work such as payroll, inventory management and accounting, said its net profit in the October-December period fell 6 percent to 756 million euros ($1.1 billion) from 804 million euros a year earlier. Its total revenue rose 10 percent to 3.2 billion euros ($4.7 billion).

Of its sales, the company said that its software and software-related service revenue in the quarter rose 13 percent to 2.5 billion euros ($3.7 billion) from 2.2 billion euros a year ago. Its software sales rose 14 percent to 1.4 billion euros ($2 billion) from 1.2 billion euros.

For all of 2007, the company posted a profit of 1.9 billion euros ($2.8 billion), up 3 percent from 1.87 billion euros in 2006. Total sales rose 9 percent to 10.2 billion euros ($15 billion) compared with nearly 9.4 billion euros in 2006.

Of the sales total, software and software-related service revenue rose 13 percent to 7.4 billion euros ($10.9 billion) from 6.6 billion euros in 2006. Software sales also rose 13 percent to 3.4 billion euros ($5 billion) from 3 billion euros.

"The outstanding performance reflects the continued success we are seeing in SAP's established business, which will continue to be the foundation for growth heading into 2008 and beyond," chief executive Henning Kagermann said in a statement. "We expect new innovations like SAP Business ByDesign to help us capture tremendous opportunities in untapped segments in the midmarket, to augment growth going forward."

He added that the acquisition of France's Business Objects last year in a 4.8 billion euro ($7 billion) friendly takeover "makes us the clear leader in business performance optimization products."

"This will help us further penetrate the fast-growing business user segment and will be another driver of growth as we move ahead," he said.

Shares of SAP rose 0.7 percent to 31.67 euros ($46.79) on Wednesday in Frankfurt.

Yahoo's woes vex employees, shareholders

SAN FRANCISCO - It's not a pleasant time to be a Yahoo Inc. employee or shareholder.

Hoping to snap out of a financial malaise, Yahoo is preparing to lay off as many as 1,000 workers in the Sunnyvale-based company's biggest purge since it was scrambling to survive the dot-com bust seven years ago.

Cost-cutting like that normally makes investors happy, but Wall Street wasn't in a celebratory mood late Tuesday after Yahoo reported a 23 percent drop in its fourth-quarter profit and provided a tepid outlook for 2008.

The one-two punch pounded Yahoo's already sagging shares, hurling the stock 9.4 percent lower when trading opened Wednesday. Shares fell $1.96 to $18.85. The backlash extends a decline that has obliterated $35 billion in shareholder wealth since the end of 2005, slashing Yahoo's market value by more than 50 percent.

Unless Yahoo can bounce back soon, the company could face more pressure to find a buyer or make another dramatic move like hiring rival Google Inc. to run its search engine and generate more ad revenue.

Microsoft Corp. has been mentioned as Yahoo's most likely suitor, although more analysts are starting to question whether Yahoo's deepening funk will scare off potential bidders.

Jerry Yang, a Yahoo co-founder who became chief executive seven months ago in an attempt to shake things up, remains confident better times are ahead as the company realizes the gains from recent acquisitions and ad partnerships.

But he indicated the big payoff is unlikely to come before 2009, warning in a prepared statement that Yahoo still faces "headwinds" this year.

"This sort of transition takes time," Yang said in a conference call with analysts Tuesday. "But we have the talent and the strong cash flow it takes to succeed."

Investors, though, appear to be growing weary of waiting for a turnaround that has been promised for the past 18 months. Yahoo shares dropped $2.09 in extended trading Tuesday after finishing the regular session at $20.81, up 3 cents.

"I'm surprised by how slowly they seem to be moving," said Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Derek Brown. "Yahoo still has quite a bit of work ahead."

In its most drastic step since Yang became CEO, Yahoo is drawing up plans to whittle as many as 1,000 jobs from its payroll — a 7 percent reduction of its 14,300-employee work force.

Yahoo indicated some employees whose current jobs are eliminated may be offered new assignments in other parts of the company. Further details are supposed to be released by mid-February.

Yahoo expects to absorb a first-quarter charge of $20 million to $25 million to pay for severance costs and other expenses incurred in the layoffs.

The cost cutting could reduce Yahoo's annual expenses by more than $100 million, helping offset some lost revenue from a re-negotiated partnership with AT&T Inc. to provide high-speed Internet service.

Under a new deal announced Tuesday, Yahoo and AT&T will share revenue generated through online advertising. Previously, AT&T had paid Yahoo a portion of the fees collected from subscribers to their cobranded Internet service. Analysts had estimated that arrangement generated about $250 million in annual revenue for Yahoo.

To ease the pain of the transition, Yahoo will receive an upfront payment of $300 million to $400 million from AT&T.

Yahoo's profits have been falling even though advertisers are spending more than ever on the Internet.

The bulk of the additional online ad spending has been pouring into Internet search leader Google, which was smaller than Yahoo just three years ago and is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results Thursday.

Yahoo earned $205.7 million, or 15 cents per share, during 2007's final three months, down from net income of $268.7 million, or 19 cents per share, at the same time in 2006.

Reflecting the gloomy aura hanging over Yahoo, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had projected earnings of 11 cents per share, on average.

For the full year, Yahoo's profit decreased 12 percent to $660 million.

Fourth-quarter revenue totaled $1.83 billion, an improvement of 8 percent over $1.7 billion a year earlier. After subtracting commissions paid to its advertising partners, Yahoo's revenue was $1.4 billion, in line with analyst estimates.

Yahoo estimated its revenue this year will range from $5.35 billion to $5.95 billion, excluding ad commissions. The average analyst estimate stood at $5.92 billion.

Separately, Yahoo announced it hired former VeriSign Inc. executive Aristotle "Ari" Balogh as its new chief technology officer, filling a void created with the resignation of Farzad Nazem last June. Balogh, 43, held the same job at VeriSign.

View of the day: Earnings growth in emerging markets

Earnings growth estimates for emerging markets remain too optimistic given decelerating global growth, and cost pressures, says Oussama Himani, strategist at UBS (NYSE:UBS).

He notes that while slower growth - and possible recession - has long been expected in the US, a sharp deceleration in Europe has only much more recently become an obvious development.

"Emerging markets, on the whole, are more exposed to Europe than they are to the US," Mr Himani says. "The EU is the destination of a larger share of emerging market exports."

He also warns that underlying earnings growth expectations in emerging markets are based on margin expansion - which does not occur in slower growth environments.

"This is especially the case in the current cost environment. Wage pressures are evident in most emerging markets, while neither energy prices nor commodity prices are likely to moderate in any meaningful way.

"We believe that significant earnings downgrades are likely in the months ahead.

"As a baseline scenario for 2008, we now assume sales growth will be 10-12 per cent, but that net income margins will decline by one percentage point to 11 per cent. This will imply earnings growth of about 9 per cent this year. However it will take only small further changes in margins to imply no earnings growth."

Ingredient costs hit Kellogg, Kraft earnings

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Kraft Foods Inc (KFT.N) and Kellogg Co (K.N), two of the world's largest food makers, posted lower quarterly results on Wednesday, hampered by soaring costs for ingredients like dairy products and wheat.

The fourth quarter was one of the worst ever for food companies in terms of commodity costs, analysts said. Kraft said that wheat, soybean oil, cheese, coffee, cocoa and a host of other commodities are well above their 10-year averages.

"Across the food space, it's showing up this (fourth) quarter," Edward Jones analyst Matt Arnold said of rising commodity costs. Arnold said costs should remain tough in the first quarter, but then could ease later this year.

Like other food companies, Kellogg, the largest cereal maker, and Kraft, the largest North American food company, have raised prices to try to help recoup some of the rising costs.

Those increases come as the U.S. economy teeters on the brink of a recession. But executives at both companies said they should be well positioned if the economy were to move into a full-fledged recession.

"The most prominent impact of a potential recession will be that people will continue to eat at home more," rather than at restaurants, Kraft Chief Executive Irene Rosenfeld said in an interview with Reuters.

FOURTH-QUARTER RESULTS

Kraft profit fell to $585 million, or 38 cents a share, in the fourth quarter compared with $624 million, or 38 cents, a year earlier when the company had roughly 100 million more shares outstanding.

The maker of Oreo cookies, Crystal light drink mixes and Oscar Mayer lunch meat said profit was 44 cents a share excluding restructuring costs, matching the average analyst estimate compiled by Reuters Estimates.

Revenue rose to $10.40 billion from $9.37 billion. Excluding divestitures and the benefit from the weaker dollar, "organic" revenue rose 6.2 percent, the company said.

The company has been making changes in its portfolio, purchasing Groupe Danone's (DANO.PA) global cookie business in November while separately agreeing to sell its Post Cereals business to Ralcorp Holdings Inc (RAH.N).

At the same time, it has increased development of new products like Oreo sandwich cakes and Oscar Mayer deli sandwich kits to help boost sales.

Still, surging dairy costs weighed on profits. The company, which gets almost one-fifth of its revenue from cheese, said dairy costs were up more than 40 percent in the quarter.

"Cheese has been a category that they have struggled to manage properly for the past decade," Gregg Warren, analyst at Morningstar, said.

KELLOGG SLIPS

Kellogg -- manufacturer of Frosted Flakes cereal, Keebler cookies and Eggo waffles -- posted a 3 percent decline in fourth-quarter profit to $176 million, or 44 cents a share, matching analysts estimates.

Sales rose 8.1 percent to $2.79 billion. Internal sales, which exclude currency fluctuations and acquisitions, increased 5 percent.

Fourth-quarter North American internal sales rose 8 percent in the cereal business, 2 percent in the snack business and 6 percent in the frozen and specialty channels business.

For 2008, the company stood by its earnings forecast of $2.92 to $2.97 a share. Kellogg Chief Executive David Mackay said on a conference call that the company should be able to weather a recession.

"Really, our business has performed pretty well through those periods," he said of past U.S. economic slowdowns.

Kellogg shares were up 64 cents a share at $50.26 on Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange and Kraft was down 33 cents at $29.86. Kellogg trades at 18 times estimated 2008 earnings, while Kraft trades at a multiple of 16.5 times.

Kraft Foods 4Q profit falls

CHICAGO - Kraft Foods Inc., the nation's biggest food and beverage maker, said Wednesday its fourth-quarter profit fell 6 percent due to higher dairy prices and one-time costs.

The company also said it expects earnings per share of at least $1.90 for this year, excluding restructuring costs. Analysts anticipate profit of $1.94 per share.

Net income fell to $585 million, or 38 cents per share, for the three months ending Dec. 31. That's down from $624 million, or 38 cents per share, during the same period last year.

The 2007 per-share result was based on 90 million fewer shares outstanding.

Excluding asset impairment and other costs, the company earned 44 cents per share, matching estimates of analysts polled by Thomson Financial. Those figures typically exclude one-time items.

The company primarily blamed a nearly 40 percent boost in dairy prices during the quarter for the earnings decline. The high commodities costs dragged down operating earnings at the company's North American Cheese and Foodservice division by more than 53 percent.

Revenue rose 11 percent to $10.40 billion from $9.37 billion in the fourth quarter of 2006. Analysts predicted revenue of $10.05 billion.

"We are off to an excellent start in our efforts to return Kraft to reliable growth," said Kraft Chief Executive Irene Rosenfeld.

For the full year, Kraft's profit fell 15 percent to $2.6 billion, or $1.62 per share. That's down from $3.06 billion, or $1.85 per share, in 2006. Full-year revenue climbed 8.4 percent to $37.2 billion from $34.4 billion in 2006.

The Northfield-based company also lowered estimates for how much it expects to spend on its restructuring program, saying costs would about $2.8 billion instead of its expected $3 billion.

Its shares fell 33 cents to $29.86 in morning trading Wednesday.

Lazard earnings surge on merger advisory fees

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Merger advisory firm Lazard Ltd (LAZ.N) on Wednesday said its fourth-quarter earnings rose 43 percent, beating estimates, on increased merger advisory fees.

The company also renewed Chief Executive Bruce Wasserstein's contract for five years, and boosted its quarterly dividend.

Lazard focuses on generating merger advisory, restructuring, and asset management fees and does little trading of its own funds. That business mix has insulated the company from the massive writedowns that many other Wall Street firms faced in recent quarters.

But the credit crisis is slowing merger activity globally, which over time could show up in Lazard's results. Lazard earns fees when deals are closed, and, in general, fewer new mergers are being announced, and fewer announced transactions are closing.

Just over $180 billion of merger transactions have closed in 2008 so far worldwide, down from over $265 billion in the same period last year, according to Dealogic.

The timing for deal closings could be less predictable in the near term, said Vice Chairman Steven Golub in an interview.

"The short-term timing could be erratic, but we still see a lot of opportunities," Golub said, adding that restructuring activity is showing signs of picking up.

Net income was $122.6 million, or $1.04 a share, from $85.8 million, or 78 cents, a year earlier. Lazard's operating revenue in the fourth quarter rose 26 percent to $618 million.

Analysts on average expected Lazard to earn 95 cents a share on $595 million in revenue, according to Reuters Estimates.

Lazard, a former partnership that went public in 2005, reports results assuming the full exchange of equity interests.

FIVE MORE YEARS

Lazard's merger advisory operating revenue soared 27 percent to $313.6 million in the fourth quarter, while restructuring revenue rose 58 percent to $32.3 million.

Asset management generated operating revenue of $231.2 million, up 32 percent. That business has staged a big turnaround in recent quarters, helped by client inflows.

Lazard has renewed the contract of Bruce Wasserstein, chairman and chief executive, through the end of 2012. Wasserstein will receive a lower base salary under the contract--$900,000 a year, compared with the prior base of $4.8 million.

But Wasserstein, who helped break down territorial walls at the century-and-a-half old Lazard prior to its initial public offering, will also receive 2.7 million restricted shares. Those shares vest at the end of the contract period, and are worth about $95 million at current prices.

The company boosted its quarterly dividend to 10 cents per share from 9 cents a share.

Shares of Lazard have fallen 31 percent over the past year, part of a broader sell-off among investment bank shares in a year of turmoil in credit and mortgage markets.

Kellogg profit falls on wheat, advertising costs

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Kellogg Co (K.N) on Wednesday posted lower quarterly profit, hit by rising costs for wheat and other commodities and increased spending on advertising.

The world's largest breakfast cereal maker said profit fell to $176 million, or 44 cents a share, in the fourth quarter, down from $182 million, or 45 cents a share, a year earlier.

Earnings matched the average analyst estimate compiled by Reuters Estimates.

Like many food companies, the maker of Frosted Flakes cereal, Eggo waffles and Keebler cookies has been hit by soaring prices for ingredients and energy. The company has increased prices and looked for ways to cut costs to try to offset higher commodity costs.

The company said fourth-quarter results included a double-digit increase in advertising investment and significantly higher costs for commodities, energy and benefits as well as up-front investment charges of 3 cents a share, down from 8 cents a share in the year-ago period.

Sales rose 8.1 percent to $2.79 billion. Internal sales, which exclude currency fluctuations and acquisitions, increased 5 percent.

Fourth-quarter North American internal sales rose 8 percent in the cereal business, 2 percent in the snack business and 6 percent in the frozen and specialty channels business.

Kellogg's international business saw internal sales rise 6 percent, driven by a 6 percent gain in Latin America, a 4 percent gain in Europe and a 2 percent gain in the Asia Pacific region.

Strong performance in Japan, South Korea, India and South Africa offset continued weakness in Australia.

For 2008, the company stood by its earnings forecast of $2.92 to $2.97 a share. Analysts on average forecast $3.01 a share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Kellogg shares closed at $49.62 on Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock is down 1 percent in the past year, compared with a 7 percent decline for the Standard & Poor's packaged foods index (.15GSPFOOD).

Kellogg 4Q earnings slip on costs

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. - Cereal and snack maker Kellogg Co. said Wednesday its fourth-quarter profit dipped slightly due in part to higher energy and materials costs and more investment in advertising, but still matched Wall Street's expectations.

For the quarter ended Dec. 29, the Battle Creek-based company earned $176 million, or 44 cents per share, compared with $182 million, or 45 cents per share, a year ago.

Revenue rose 8 percent to $2.79 billion from $2.58 billion, benefiting partly from stronger net sales by the Kellogg International division.

The results matched estimates by analysts polled by Thomson Financial, who forecast a profit of 44 cents per share on $2.74 billion in revenue. The analysts' earnings estimates typically exclude one-time items.

The company also affirmed its full-year 2008 adjusted earnings guidance in the range of $2.92 to $2.97 per share.

Kraft profit falls on dairy costs

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Kraft Foods Inc (KFT.N) on Wednesday posted a lower quarterly profit as higher costs for dairy products and other ingredients offset an 11 percent sales increase.

The sales increase was a sign Kraft is having some success with new products and improved marketing. But the company still continues to battle higher costs for ingredients and energy.

The maker of foods ranging from Oreo cookies to Crystal Light drink mix said profit was $585 million, or 38 cents a share, in the fourth quarter compared with $624 million, or 38 cents a share, a year earlier when the company had roughly 100 million more shares outstanding.

Earnings were 44 cents a share excluding restructuring costs, matching the average analyst estimate compiled by Reuters Estimates.

Revenue rose to $10.40 billion from $9.37 billion. Excluding divestitures and the benefit from the weaker dollar, "organic" revenue rose 6.2 percent, the company said.

The company has been making changes in its portfolio, purchasing Groupe Danone's (DANO.PA) global cookie business in November while separately agreeing to sell its Post Cereals business to Ralcorp Holdings Inc (RAH.N).

Kraft has spent $2.1 billion since 2004 on a major restructuring program.

Kraft forecast 2008 earnings of at least $1.90 cents a share excluding restructuring items. Analysts on average forecast $1.95 a share, according to Reuters Estimates. It also forecast an increase of at least 4 percent in organic revenue, up from its previous forecast of 3 percent to 4 percent.

Kraft shares closed at $30.19 on Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock is down 13 percent in the past year, compared with a 7 percent decline for the Standard & Poor's packaged foods index (.15GSPFOOD).

Reinsurer Munich Re's 2007 profit rises

FRANKFURT, Germany - Reinsurer Munich Re AG said Wednesday it expects to post a bigger profit in 2007 than last year, beating its previous target of more than $5.17 billion.

The Munich-based company, the world's No. 2 reinsurer behind Swiss Re, is scheduled to release its complete fourth-quarter and 2007 results on Feb. 25. It said its 2007 profit is expected to reach 3.9 billion euros ($5.76 billion), compared with a profit of 3.5 billion euros in 2006. The 2007 figure is also higher than the previously forecast range of 3.5 billion euros to 3.8 billion euros ($5.2 billion to $5.6 billion), the company said.

Reinsurance companies sell backup coverage to other insurers, spreading risk so the system can handle losses from major disasters. Munich Re was overtaken as the largest in the industry last year when Swiss Re completed its takeover of General Electric Inc.'s reinsurance operations.

Munich Re also allayed investors' fears that the subprime mortgage crisis could affect its results and said it expected less than 10 million euros ($14.77 million) in fourth-quarter write-downs, bringing its total exposure to such mortgage loans to 340 million euros ($502.3 million), or less than 0.2 percent of its total investment portfolio.

"Our prudent investment policy and healthy skepticism toward excesses in individual markets have proved justified," said Chief Executive Joerg Schneider in a statement. "We have a well-balanced investment portfolio. Our restraint with regard to credit risks in recent years, because risk spreads were completely inadequate, is now paying off for us."

The company also said it will propose a shareholder dividend of 5.50 euros ($8.13) a share, up from the 4.50 euros ($6.65) per share dividend it paid out in 20906.

Munich Re operates Ergo, one of Germany's biggest insurers, and Munich Reinsurance America Inc.

Canon 4Q profit edges up 1.8 percent

TOKYO - Canon Inc. said Wednesday its profit edged up 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter from the year before, helping it reach a record annual profit for the eighth straight year.

The company also forecast steady profit growth in the year ahead despite anxiety about a global economic slowdown and the strong yen, which could drag on exports.

Net income rose to 127.8 billion yen ($1.197 billion) in the October-December quarter from 125.6 billion yen a year earlier, the Japanese electronics maker said in a release. Sales of office equipment and cameras largely offset a rise in research and development expenses.

Sales in the fiscal fourth quarter climbed 3.9 percent to 1.264 trillion yen ($11.8 billion), it said.

Office equipment sales rose 5 percent on growth in its combination printer-copier-fax machine business. Single-purpose monochrome and color laser printers also helped support growth.

Sales of digital compact and single lens reflex cameras fueled 5.4 percent growth in the company's digital camera business from the year before, it said. But greater research and development spending and a rise in operating expenses held fourth quarter profits down.

For the full year, Canon's profit rose 7.3 percent to 488.33 billion yen ($4.57 billion). That missed the company's forecast for 500 billion yen but it was still the eighth straight year of record annual earnings.

Annual sales rose 7.7 percent to 4.48 trillion yen ($41.97 billion).

Looking ahead, Canon predicts that annual net earnings will rise 6.5 percent to 520 billion yen ($4.87 billion) on sales of 4.72 trillion yen ($44.22 billion).

That's an upbeat outlook amid concerns that the U.S. might be sliding into a recession and global growth could slow this year.

Sales of digital cameras remained strong over 2007, helping the Tokyo-based manufacturer soak up the impact of the strengthening yen on its exports.

Canon shares fell 1.88 percent to 4,690 yen ($43.93) on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The company released results after the close of trade. The results were based on U.S. accounting standards.

Bernanke Fed revs up effort to head off recession

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The US Federal Reserve has stepped up its campaign to head off recession with another half-point rate cut as part of an aggressive move to avert a downward economic spiral, analysts say.

The cut Wednesday in the federal funds rate to 3.0 percent came just eight days after an emergency cut of 0.75 percentage points in the face of a global stock market rout and concerns the world's biggest economy was sinking fast.

Analysts say the Fed headed by Ben Bernanke is acting more aggressively than any time in the past two decades.

"We must go back to early 1985 to find a period when rates fell more sharply in such a short period of time," said Robert Brusca at FAO Economics.

Brusca said Fed members have an "amorphous fear of recession snowballing and getting out of hand."

Although the US has survived recessions before, Brusca said some see a more troublesome scenario.

"Having seen what happened to Japan with its property market ills, the Fed decided not to risk that a weak housing market topped by a recession added to a weakened financial sector that could turn into an economic disaster," Brusca said.

The cuts in the federal funds rate, used for overnight interbank loans, can help lower a wide range of borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, and as such can help spur activity in an economy buffeted by the worst housing slump in decades which has spilled over to the financial sector.

"The FOMC has clearly stated that the economy is job one," said Joel Naroff at Naroff Economic Advisors.

"The members recognize that the threats to the financial markets and therefore economic growth remain and that they had to get the Fed into accommodation mode. They have done so in a very dramatic fashion and have made the financial markets very happy."

As the Fed members met, the Commerce Department reported US economic growth slowed sharply to a 0.6 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter of 2007. Other data however have been mixed.

Robert MacIntosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Management, said the Fed is scrambling to catch up to a rapidly deteriorating economic backdrop.

"The fact that this came just eight days after the last cut speaks volumes about how far behind the curve the Fed thinks they are," MacIntosh said.

"And I think the language indicates they're going to cut further."

MacIntosh said he believes the Fed may cut rates as low as 2.0 percent to help avert a recession, but not go as far as the 1.0 percent funds rate that some say precipitated the housing bubble.

"I think they're trying to keep us out of a recession," he said. "Whether this is enough or soon enough or too late remains to be seen."

Brian Bethune at Global Insight said the Fed wants to guard against negative sentiment taking hold as Congress debates an economic stimulus package aimed at boosting consumer and business spending.

"The Fed needs to throw out a life raft to the economy pending the fiscal stimulus measures that are expected to move through Congress in the next week or so," Bethune said.

"The earliest that consumers can expect to get relief from the package is June."

Some analysts say the Fed will be reluctant to cut further for fear of reigniting inflation but may be forced into more cuts if the economy deteriorates further.

The latest cut "can be seen as a second installment in the rapid and significant adjustment in the degree of monetary accommodation that began last Tuesday," said Peter Kretzmer, senior economist at Bank of America.

"We believe that the size of the easing was likely 'one-time' in nature, and expect the FOMC to be more judicious in the months ahead. At this time, we believe modest additional easing likely will take place, depending on the evolution of the economic releases."

Brusca said the Fed may have to move quickly to lift rates if the economy steadies.

"Ironically, the more successful the Fed is in stabilizing the economy the more of an inflation problem it will have and the sooner it will have it," he said.

Rate cuts consign gradualism to history

Is the era of gradualism at the Federal Reserve over? After 125 basis points of interest rate cuts in the space of eight days some economists are asking whether the US central bank is taking a new approach to monetary policy.

They see the new approach as one that emphasises getting rates down quickly to whatever level looks appropriate in the light of new information, rather than moving in a series of incremental steps.

If these economists are right, the change would have far-reaching consequences for the US economy and financial markets.

For decades the Fed has operated on an incremental basis both in good times and bad. Alan Greenspan, the former Fed chairman, was dubbed "quarter point Al" by traders for his habit of moving in 25 basis point increments.

In his 18 years as the central bank chief Mr Greenspan never cut rates by more than 50 basis points in a single meeting. Ben Bernanke, Mr Greenspan's successor, cut by 75 basis points last week and has followed it up with a further 50 basis point cut this week.

"Greenspan has left the building," says Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase. "What now distinguishes Bernanke is his abandonment of Fed gradualism."

There is a more prosaic explanation for the change: that the Fed simply realised it had fallen behind the curve and reasserted another Greenspan era principle - the "risk management" approach to policy that buys insurance against worst case outcomes.

This is almost certainly the way that longtime Fed officials such as vice-chairman Don Kohn regard the latest cuts. But the academics on the committee may see other reasons for operating in a less gradual fashion that reinforce the traditional risk management logic.

"The kind of moves we have seen recently are unprecedented," says Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank securities. "That certainly raises the possibility of something new afoot here."

Vincent Reinhart, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former chief monetary economist at the Fed, says: "They have moved away from gradualism." He says Fed gradualism was hard to square with cutting edge academic research on optimal control theory. "In these models you front-load policy changes."

One justification for moving incrementally is that it encourages investors to extrapolate a series of moves in the same direction, allowing policymakers to influence long term rates.

However, theory suggests front-loaded rate changes could have an equally powerful effect but in a different way: shifting the yield curve up or down rather than tilting its slope. Such an app-roach would change the way Fed policy affects the economy, altering its relative traction on adjustable rate and fixed-rate mortgages, short and long term investments and bank profitability.

Mr Bernanke is unlikely to favour going all the way to a front-loaded policy framework. He takes seriously the Brainard principle, which advises moving incrementally when the power of a policy move is not known.

But as the Fed chairman explained in a speech in October, the Brainard principle is less compelling in circumstances where there may be heavy costs to delay.

Governor Frederic Mishkin took this argument a step further this month, when he called for a less "inertial" approach to policy in the face of financial disruptions. The result could be a fusion of traditional Fed risk management thinking with a new academic bias towards more front-loading of policy change. The result would be risk management on steroids. However, it would imply a willingness to stay on hold when expected weakness materialises and to raise rates quickly when risks abate.

Senate panel passes $157 billion stimulus plan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate Finance Committee approved a $157 billion economic stimulus package on Wednesday that offers smaller tax rebates to more people than a plan passed by the U.S. House of Representatives.

The committee approved the bill as the full Senate prepared to begin debate as early as Thursday on competing versions of an economic stimulus plan lawmakers hope will encourage consumer and business spending to help stave off an election-year recession.

President George W. Bush wants the Senate to accept the $146 billion package passed Tuesday by the House. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has been pushing his fellow Republicans to reject the Senate Finance Committee bill and support the House version to avoid delays on issuing the rebate checks.

The Finance Committee bill, approved on a vote of 14-7, would provide a flat $500 tax rebate to individuals and $1,000 for couples, plus $300 per child. The rebates also would go to about 20 million low-income retirees on Social Security who would not receive checks under the $146 billion House stimulus bill.

"I've worked hard with my colleagues to improve on the House stimulus proposal and move a bill quickly," Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat, said. "Congress should seize with both hands this chance to make 20 million American seniors a part of our economic stimulus efforts today, and get our country growing again."

The House bill calls for rebates of up to $600 for individuals and $1,200 for married couples, plus $300 per child. The rebates would begin phasing out for individuals with more than $75,000 in taxable income and married couples with more than $150,000.

The Finance Committee bill would give a flat $500 rebate to individuals, $1,000 for couples, plus $300 per child to all tax filers reporting at least $3,000 of income, including Social Security and disability benefits.

The House bill provides for a $300 rebate for low-income workers, $600 for families who reported at least $3,000 in income in 2007 and paid no income taxes. Those families would also get the $300 child benefit.

The Finance Committee bill would also make more higher-income people eligible by doubling the income when phase-out begins to $150,000 for individuals and $300,000 for married couples.

A downturn in the housing market, a subprime mortgage crisis, tightening credit markets and rising oil prices have lawmakers and some economists worried that the U.S. economy could slip into a recession.

Economic growth slowed abruptly to 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter last year, following a surge of 4.9 percent in the third quarter, the U.S. government said on Wednesday.

The Finance Committee added a number of measures not included in the House bill, including nearly $6 billion in tax benefits for renewal energy resources. The bill would extend unemployment benefits beyond the 26 weeks offered by most states. Bush and many of his fellow Republicans oppose extending unemployment benefits.

The committee also agreed to an amendment that temporarily raises by $10 billion the amount of tax-exempt mortgage revenue bonds that states can offer to help fund low-income housing and low interest mortgages to help some homeowners facing foreclosure refinance their loans.

Like the House bill, the Finance Committee measure includes business incentives for new purchases. But it goes further by allowing companies to write off more of their losses against previous tax years.

The committee bill would cost the federal treasury about $157 billion this year and nearly $36 billion next year, but last minute additions to the bill could change that number.

Economy - Wednesday

Greenspan: Fed can't save U.S.

Ex-Fed chief Alan Greenspan doubts the central bank's ability to prevent a U.S. recession. He put the chances of a recession at 50%. He said real long-term rates have much more influence over economic activity than national decisions, while central banks have "less and less power to influence long-term rates." The Fed cut rates half a point 15 3% on Wed. after last week's emergency 75-basis-point cut.

Factory execs' optimism about the U.S. economy fell in Q4, said the PricewaterhouseCoopers Manufacturing Barometer. The poll found 29% of execs were upbeat, the lowest since the survey started in '03. Mortgage application activity rose 7.5% in the week ended Jan. 25, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. The MBA said refinancing applications soared 22.1% to the highest since July '03. But applications for buying a home retreated. British mortgage approvals for buying a home fell for a 7th month to 73,000 in Dec. from a downwardly revised 81,000 in Nov. That puts more pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates next week. Japan's output up, outlook weak

Dec. industrial output rose 1.4% vs. Nov., below views for a 2% gain. Manufacturers expect output to fall in early '08. The data suggest Japanese firms are starting to feel the pinch from slowing U.S. growth and a housing slump at home.

Russian fears of foreign investment

Two of Russia's top economic leaders made a rare public call that the Kremlin needs to adjust its hawkish foreign policy because it was affecting foreign investment. They called for Russia to pursue greater int'l cooperation. Russia will see its robust account surplus cut to zero in the next few years as imports surge and oil output stagnates, increasing Russia's dependency on foreign capital.

COMING UP THURSDAY

Employment cost index for Q4, 8:30 a.m. EST (forecast: 0.8%). Personal income and spending for Dec., 8:30 a.m. EST (forecast: income up 0.4%, spending up 0.1%, core PCE deflator up 0.2%). New jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 26, 8:30 a.m. EST (forecast: 320,000). Chicago PMI for Jan., 9:45 a.m. EST (forecast: 52).

Fed Slashes Rates As Financial 'Stress' Limits GDP To O.6%

The Federal Reserve boldly slashed interest rates on Wednesday, attempting to stave off a recession after the housing slump and tighter credit almost sank the economy in the fourth quarter.

The half-point 18eduction in the fed funds target rate, to 3%, came a week after the Fed unexpectedly cut borrowing costs by 75 basis points as stocks sold off worldwide amid U.S. recession fears.

"Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households," the central bank said in Wednesday's post-meeting statement.

Policymakers also cited "a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets."

The economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.6% in the fourth quarter, well below the robust 4.9% gain in the previous quarter and the weakest performance in five years, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Wall Street had expected a 1.2% rise.

For all of 2007, the economy expanded 2.2% -- the slowest pace in five years.

Stocks rallied after the expected Fed rate move. But the major averages turned south on renewed concerns about bond insurers.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 basis point 15 3.69%, off its intraday high but still rebounding from last week's four-year low.

The Fed said "downside risks to growth remain," suggesting it could cut rates further.

The GDP report's core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose at a 2.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, the biggest in more than a year.

But policymakers said they expected inflation to "moderate."

Economists applauded the Fed's move.

"It's all positive. The risk of not cutting enough is a U.S. economy that fails," said Todd Schoenberger, executive director of brokerage at USAA.

But some feared that policymakers may be too late.

"The good news is that the patient is getting the right medication, but the bad news is that the patient is sick already and won't get better for a while," said Christian Menegatti, lead analyst at RGE Monitor, an economics Web site.

It takes six months or more for rate cuts to aid the economy, analysts say.

The Fed also cut its discount rate -- the rate it charges banks for loans -- by a half-point, to 3.5%.

The discount rate is seldom used, so the central bank has been relying on its new "TAF" auctions to get cash to the banks that need it.

Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher was the only policymaker to oppose cutting the fed funds rate. He favored no change despite signs that the economy is slowing sharply.

Home construction fell at a 23.9% annual rate -- the most since 1981 -- subtracting 1.2 percentage points from fourth-quarter GDP growth.

Companies also pared stockpiles, cutting 1.3 points from growth.

But that could be good news for future growth, economists said. Tight inventories mean factories might have to ramp up output, especially if rate cuts or a proposed economic stimulus package fuel spending.

"Stimulus, be it from the Fed or elsewhere, can be particularly potent due to the inventory drawdown," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

Consumer spending rose at a less-than-expected 2% pace. Other data have showed retail sales falling in December.

Business investment rose 7.5%, below the third quarter's 9.3% rate but better than many forecasts.

Strong exports again helped narrow the trade deficit, adding 0.55 percentage point 15 GDP.

Separately, private-sector firms added 130,000 workers in January, much larger than December's 37,000 increase, according to ADP.

That's double Wall Street's forecast for Friday's payrolls report, which includes government jobs.

ADP has an uneven track record of forecasting the payrolls data, but it jibes with declining jobless claims.

"If employment at least is solid, it lays the groundwork for continued consumer spending," said Bruce McCain, head of investment strategy at Key Private Bank.

Economy nearly stalled in 4th quarter

WASHINGTON - The economy nearly stalled in the fourth quarter with a growth rate of just 0.6 percent, capping its worst year since 2002.

Wednesday's Commerce Department report showed that the economy deteriorated considerably during the October-to-December quarter as worsening problems in the housing market and harder-to-get credit made individuals and businesses more cautious in their spending. Fears of a recession have grown, even as inflation remained elevated.

For all of 2007, the economy grew by just 2.2 percent, the weakest performance in five years, when the country was struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. The housing collapse was the biggest culprit; builders slashed spending on housing projects by 16.9 percent on an annualized basis, the most in 25 years.

The gross domestic product report for the last quarter of 2007 came as the Democratic-run Congress and the Bush administration continued to work on a program of tax rebates and business incentives.

"We are not happy with 0.6 percent GDP growth," Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez told The Associated Press. "We now need the full Congress to move forward as soon as possible because consumers — the American people — are waiting for that check and that is going to help them."

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said when economic growth slowed as much as it did in the final quarter "alarm bells should be going off urging Washington to give the economy a good shot in the arm."

To help bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday sliced a key interest rate by a bold half-percentage point, its second reduction in eight days.

Wall Street rallied but then pulled back, still wary. The Dow Jones industrials jumped more than 200 points after the Fed announcement but finished the day down 37.47.

The fourth-quarter's performance was much weaker — half the pace that economists were expecting.

"The economy has been subject to something of the perfect storm here. It has been hit by the housing slump the credit squeeze, the subprime slime and stock price declines on Wall Street," said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. "The economy is weathering some pretty stormy seas but it is weak."

The 0.6 percent annualized increase in gross domestic product (GDP) marked a big loss of momentum from the third quarter's brisk, 4.9 percent showing. The fourth-quarter pace was the slowest since the first quarter of last year.

The GDP figures come as worries mount that the country is on the verge of a recession or perhaps is already sliding into one.

The administration remained hopeful that a recession could be skirted.

"We are not forecasting a recession," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said. Gutierrez said: "We are looking at slower growth, and the indicators — the facts, the numbers we have at out disposal — suggest that is what we will see" for the first half of the year, the commerce secretary said. He said the economy should return to a more solid growth rate in the second half.

GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is the best barometer of the country's economic health.

In the fourth quarter, consumer spending slowed to a pace of 2 percent, down from a 2.8 percent growth rate in the prior quarter. For all of last year, consumers boosted spending by 2.9 percent, the smallest increase since 2003.

Businesses also watched their spending more closely during the final quarter of last year. Fearing a lessening appetite from their customers, they cut inventories of goods. That shaved 1.25 percentage points from fourth-quarter GDP, the most in a year.

Spending by businesses on equipment and software slowed to a pace of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter. For the year, such spending was up just 1.4 percent, the worst showing since 2002.

Sales of U.S. goods and services abroad also slowed sharply in the fourth quarter. Exports grew at a 3.9 percent pace, compared with a sizzling 19.1 percent growth rate in the third quarter. That strong export growth was a key reason why the economy performed so well as a whole in the prior quarter. For all of 2007, exports grew by 7.9 percent, the slowest in two years.

Meanwhile, inflation picked up sharply during the final quarter. However, for all of 2007, it moderated slightly.

A gauge of inflation linked to the GDP report showed that "core" prices — excluding food and energy — grew at a rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter. That was up from a 2 percent rate in the prior quarter and was the biggest quarterly increase since the spring of 2006.

For all of last year, core prices went up 2.1 percent, down from 2.2 percent in 2006. The inflation figures are above the Fed's comfort zone — the upper bound of which is a 2 percent inflation rate.

The pick up prices could complicate the Fed's job of trying to energize overall economic growth while also keeping inflation under control.

Some analysts think the economy is on pace to recede from January through March. Under one rough rule, the economy would have to contract for six months in a row for the country to be considered in a recession. The odds of a recession have risen sharply over the last year, and analysts increasingly believe the U.S. will be in one during the first half of this year.

Henry Schein Sells Supplies To Docs, Dentists and Vets

Office-based practitioners, such as dentists, physicians and veterinarians, are in need of equipment that can help increase productivity, efficiency and profitability.

Manufacturing conglomerate Danaher makes a digital X-ray for dentists, and Milestone Scientific makes computer-controlled local anesthetic delivery systems.

New technology improvements, such as 3-D X-rays, electronic medical records, digitalized dental impressions and management software, are crucial to the productivity of office-based practitioners.

However, high-tech equipment doesn't just waltz into an office by itself, and that's where Henry Schein comes in.

The Melville, N.Y.-based company (NasdaqGS:HSIC - News) is the largest distributor of health care products and services to office-based practitioners in the combined North American and European markets. That includes private-practice dentists, physicians and veterinarians.

Schein's main focus is to help these private practitioners run a better business so they can provide better clinical care, says the company's chief executive, Stanley Bergman.

The company has a number of exclusive distribution relationships with firms -- such as Danaher (NYSE:DHR - News) and the world's largest oral care company, Colgate (NYSE:CL - News) -- that make dental and medical consumables as well as capital equipment, Bergman says.

Schein's system for selling supplies is a hybrid of direct mail, telesales and field sales that drive demand for the thousands of products delivered through an efficient distribution network, he says.

Schein has five distribution centers in the U.S., two in Canada and a similar number in Western Europe. Bergman says the distribution centers are expensive to establish, but once up and running, they have a relatively fixed-cost infrastructure that is highly efficient.

"The more volume you pump through that fixed-cost infrastructure, the greater the operating margins," Bergman told IBD.

Dental Group

Schein's dental group in aggregate accounts for roughly 65% of the company's total business. Its core North American dental group made up nearly 40% of total sales in the third quarter.

This segment is benefiting from improvements made throughout the dental care industry, including new technology and demographics, says analyst Jeff Johnson of Robert W. Baird.

"The dental market is currently being driven by a number of positive demographic factors, including an increasing worldwide population and the aging baby boomer generation," Johnson said.

"The (industry) is also benefiting from the longer retention of natural teeth, thus requiring increasing restorative, preventive and cosmetic care."

These factors have increased the focus on office productivity that has driven accelerating dental equipment and higher-end consumable product sales, Johnson says. And Schein has reaped the benefits.

In the third quarter, earnings swelled 50% to 66 cents a share on revenue of $1.51 billion, up 21%. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected 62 cents.

Schein's CFO, Steven Paladino, told IBD the company has delivered a compounded annual growth rate of 18% at the earnings level from 1995, the year it went public, through 2006.

Dental group sales rose 15%, with dental consumables up 10% and equipment and service revenue jumping 26%.

The company holds an estimated 34% share of the $6.4 billion North American dental distribution market, which is essentially in line with that of its main competitor, Patterson Cos. (NasdaqGS:PDCO - News), Johnson says.

Its medical group, driven by the same need for capital equipment that can boost productivity, saw sales grow 25% on higher influenza vaccine sales.

But the company reduced its exposure to the flu vaccine market by cutting its commitment to 15.5 million doses in 2007 and 12 million to 15 million in 2008 vs. prior estimates for 20 million doses.

"Historically, we sold flu vaccines to physicians, but we also provided products to other distributors and we wholesaled the product. We're exiting the wholesaling," Bergman said. "This helps reduce volatility while increasing visibility."

The company was able to maintain its 2007 earnings guidance of $2.53 to $2.57 a share, Paladino says. Schein also expects 2008 profit to grow to $2.93 to $3, the CFO says. Those forecasts are in line with the Street's estimates.

Bergman says its most exciting segment is its technology unit, which he expects will drive profit.

The segment saw sales increase nearly 30% in the third quarter. However, the unit accounted for just about 2% of total revenue last year. It sells software practice management systems and electronic medical records to the dental, medical and veterinary arenas.

"Technology, such as software practice management systems and electronic records, allows for increased productivity in the office and also increased cash flow," Bergman said.

In total, Schein's dental, vet and medical practice management software is used in more than 50,000 practices worldwide.

Schein's Dentrix Dental Systems and AVImark system for vets are some of the leading products in the space, the CEO says.

The electronic medical records space has a lot of opportunity, as maybe less than 5% of physicians have this software available in their office, Bergman says.

Schein built out its technology offering with the recent acquisition of Software of Excellence, a leading provider of practice management software for dentists in the U.K., Ireland, Australia and New Zealand.

Buyouts

Acquisitions have accounted for a sizeable portion of Schein's growth the last 10 years.

The company has made a dozen buyouts per year the last decade, Bergman says.

The purchases have ranged in size from firms with $20 million in sales to over $300 million in annual revenue.

More than 300 smaller distributors hold about 30% of the U.S. dental market, more than 500 smaller distributors hold roughly 50% of the U.S. medical market and more than 200 smaller distributors hold about 80% of the European dental market.

Even though the highly fragmented dental, medical and veterinary markets serve up acquisition opportunities for Schein, it still faces risks, Johnson says.

"Its growth is partially dependent on acquisitions, and should there be a lack of suitable candidates or an unfavorable economic environment, company growth could slow," Johnson said. "However, there are currently a number of potential acquisition candidates for Schein to look at."

Schein looks for two kinds of acquisitions, Bergman says.

The first is one that will increase the company's penetration in a certain market or takes it into new geographies.

The second type of acquisition will help add to Schein's product offering.

"We do our due diligence to ensure a smooth integration," Bergman said. "And we plan to continue with our (acquisition) strategy."

Bush says economy resilient despite slim GDP growth

TORRANCE, California (Reuters) - President George W. Bush said on Wednesday the U.S. economy is slowing but is resilient and would overcome problems as it has in the past, following a government report showing growth slumped at the end of last year.

U.S. gross domestic product grew at a meager annual rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, a weaker reading than the 1.2 percent rate forecast by economists.

"There are signs that our economy is slowing. There's some uncertainty in the economy. But in the long run you've got to be confident about your economy," Bush said during a visit to a helicopter factory in California.

"Our economy is flexible, it is resilient. We've been through problems before," he told employees at the Robinson Helicopter Co.

It was his first stop on a three-day Western swing to promote themes from his State of the Union address on Monday about trade, the economy, and fighting terrorism.

Bush pressed Congress to quickly approve a $146 billion economic stimulus package aimed at staving off a possible recession through tax rebates and other measures.

The House of Representatives approved the plan on Tuesday, but there is concern that it may become bogged down in the Senate over demands to include more spending for roads and other programs.

"Whatever the Senate does, they should not delay this package. They should not keep money out of your pocket," Bush said. "So my attitude is, if you're truly interested in dealing with the slowdown of the economy, the Senate ought to accept the House package, pass it, and get it to my desk as soon as possible."

Bush also pressed Congress to approve free-trade agreements with Colombia, South Korea and Panama.

"Free trade means good-paying jobs for Americans, and so Congress needs to pass these agreements for the sake of economic vitality," Bush said.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, a Maryland Democrat, said it was "doubtful" the trade pacts would be approved this year.

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger accompanied Bush on the tour of the factory, which exports 70 percent of its helicopters to foreign markets including Colombia.

Gas prices seen spiking again in spring

NEW YORK - Get ready for another surge in gasoline prices.

Experts are predicting pump prices, which jumped by almost a dollar a gallon in each of the last two springs in many parts of the United States, will spike again this year as refiners and gas stations switch from winter- to summer-blended fuels.

The increases, starting as early as February in southern California, could push the average national price to a record $3.50 a gallon or more by June.

That would be 17 percent higher than today's average of just under $3 a gallon, which already is about 80 cents a gallon higher than year-ago levels thanks to the surge of crude oil that took futures prices briefly to $100 a barrel. Prices in urban areas on each coast could approach $4 a gallon.

And the reason for the spring price shocks? Analysts say it's linked to a shortage of alkylate, a little-known and expensive gasoline additive that some in the industry are calling "liquid gold." It has become a must-have ingredient since refiners stopped using MTBE two years ago when the potentially cancer-causing additive was found to be seeping into ground water.

The alkylate shortage has become the most important driver of summer gas prices, said Doug Leggate, an analyst at Citigroup Global Markets. "Supply of (alkylate) will set the price of summer gasoline — not inventory levels," he said.

Oil companies deny they are purposely limiting production of alkylate, which like gasoline, jet fuel and asphalt is a byproduct of the oil refining process. But only recently have some started studying how they can boost output, and alkylate prices today are more than 15 percent higher than spot gasoline prices. That means overall costs will jump when it is added in larger quantities to summer-blend fuel.

Without additives, gasoline doesn't burn completely, increasing tailpipe air pollution. And untreated gas evaporates more quickly in hot weather, potentially causing vapor lock when it changes from a liquid to a gas and blocks fuel lines.

The federal government long ago required refiners to boost the oxygen content of summer-blend gasoline to make it burn more completely, a problem that was solved by adding MTBE and, more recently, ethanol.

But ethanol also has a high evaporation rate, so refiners increasingly have turned to alkylate, which Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J., calls the "magic bullet" in making summer gasoline.

Alkylate and other gasoline additives don't raise the same safety issues as MTBE because they don't bond with water as effectively as MTBE did, analysts say.

Demand for alkylate changes with the seasons, falling in autumn and rising in the spring. On average, alkylate makes up about 10 percent of a gallon of gas, though that rises to as much as 15 percent in summer. But making more of it is not as simple as throwing a switch since the underlying chemical properties of oil limit how much of any one refined petroleum product can be produced.

On average, about 44 percent of each barrel of oil ends up as gasoline, 22 percent as diesel fuel and heating oil, 9 percent as jet fuel, and about 4 percent each as heavy fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas, according to the Energy Department. The remainder is comprised of smaller products and additives.

The refining process is loud, hot and smelly. Boilers separate, or "crack," oil into new substances by subjecting it to high temperatures and pressure. As different products are boiled out, pipes carry them to other boilers or vessels where they're further refined, mixed with other substances or cleaned of pollutants and toxins.

Alkylate is made via a chemical reaction sparked when olefin fluids and isobutane — two of the smaller byproducts of the main gasoline producing unit — are mixed with acid.

"As opposed to the (gasoline unit) that cracks big components into small, this one takes two components and basically combines them," said Mark Fligner, director of planning and economics at Valero Energy Corp.'s refinery in Paulsboro, N.J., across the Delaware river and just south of Philadelphia.

Owners of about two-thirds of U.S. refineries have invested the $100 million or more it takes to add an alkylate unit. The rest have to buy alkylate on the spot market if they want to use it as additive in their gasoline supplies.

Refiners aren't gaming the system, purposely limiting alkylate production to boost gas prices, said John Auers, senior vice president at Turner Mason & Co., a Dallas consultancy. "They're not because they can't," he said. "You can't make more alkylate than you have feedstocks."

But there are tradeoffs that every refiner must weigh. For example, olefins and isobutane are in high demand for use in producing other lucrative products like plastics. Refiners can tweak their main gasoline producing unit to make more olefins and isobutane, but that would cut the gasoline output.

Alkylate prices have jumped from 77 cents a gallon in the summer of 2001 — when MTBE was still in use — to nearly $3 a gallon at points over the past two summers. Wednesday's price on the spot market was $2.72 a gallon, 40 cents more than the spot price of gasoline, according to Platts. Retail prices for gas are higher because things like state and federal taxes are added. In recent summers, that spot market differential has jumped as high as 60 cents.

Refiners place the blame for spring gas price increases on crude costs, environmental regulations that have increased the overall cost of refining, and their inability to expand or build new refineries fast enough to keep up with gasoline demand.

John Pickering, vice president and general manager at the Paulsboro refinery, said Valero makes enough alkylate to meet its needs, but concedes that there is a national shortage of the additive in the spring and summer.

Other refiners contacted by The Associated Press said they are reluctant for competitive reasons to talk about how they blend gasoline, or whether they face alkylate shortages.

What is known, however, is that refiners are hiring companies such as UOP LLC of Des Plaines, Ill., to determine whether they can increase the capacity of their existing alkylation units. "In the last year or so, there has been a significant uptick (in business)," said Ashis Banerji, director for refining at UOP, which licenses alkylation technology to refiners.

And the 36 percent of domestic refineries that don't have alkylation units are looking at adding them.

"Our impression is that refineries are moving as fast as they possibly can to add alkylation capacity," said Jim Pawloski, business director at UOP competitor DuPont Clean Technologies, a unit of DuPont Co. He said his unit's business has jumped five-fold over the past five years and will likely double again this year.

The steep jump in summer alkylate prices has also caught the attention of at least two companies that used to produce MTBE. Enterprise Products Partners LP and Texas Petrochemicals Inc., both of Houston, say they're closely studying whether to convert idled MTBE plants into alkylate factories.

That also highlights the conundrum that is alkylate: If too many refiners decide to spend big bucks to crank up production, the premium prices now enjoyed by alkylate makers could disappear.

Refiners have to weigh the cost of such an investment against the incremental cost of simply buying the extra alkylate they need. "I'm not sure that it would be economical," said Jeff Hazle, technical director at the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association.

But if production doesn't rise, American motorists will be faced with big jumps in spring gas prices for years to come.