PARIS (AFP) - The International Energy Agency kept its 2008 forecast for oil demand unchanged on Wednesday despite growing expectations of a recession in the United States.
The IEA, a state-backed oil watchdog for industrialised countries, attributed recent record oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel to a number of factors, notably pressure caused by strong demand and falling stock levels.
The forecast for 2008 shows the Paris-based organisation believes another strong increase in oil demand will sustain tension on the market despite the prospect of slowing economic growth in the US, the world's biggest consumer of energy.
In its monthly oil market report for January, the IEA forecast demand in 2008 of 87.8 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 2.3 percent or 2.0 million bpd from 2007 levels.
The IEA added that its figures for this year "may be further revised if forthcoming assessments from the IMF and the OECD point to a weaker-than-expected outlook for the US economy."
In 2007, the IEA's estimate for demand was revised up by 150,000 barrels per day to 85.8 million (bpd), an increase of 1.2 percent compared with 2006.
The IEA is far more optimistic about demand in 2008 than exporter group OPEC. Forecasters at the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries estimate demand this year to increase by the smaller amount of 1.3 million bpd.
The critical factor for oil demand in 2008 is likely to be the extent to which the US economy slows down, or even contracts, and the knock-on effects for growth in the rest of the world.
Growth in oil demand follows economic expansion. In the United States, the world's biggest market for oil, a housing crisis and tightening credit conditions are expected to hit the economy.
An increasing number of economists expect the US to slip into a recession this year, with the most pessimistic predicting a protracted downturn.
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