February 14, 2008

Dollar gains after strong US retail sales data

NEW YORK (AFP) - The dollar on Wednesday firmed against most other major currencies after better-than-expected US retail sales figures allayed fears of a US recession, analysts said.

Around 2200 GMT, the euro was at 1.4573 dollars, down from 1.4578 late Tuesday in New York.

The dollar was trading at 108.30 yen, up from 107.20 yen on Tuesday.

"After better than expected US retail sales, the buck is mixed against most major currencies with currencies that rallied yesterday selling off today," said Andrew Busch, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets.

The US government said earlier Wednesday that retail sales rose 0.3 percent in January, as shopping activity rebounded unexpectedly despite mounting concerns about wider economic growth.

The monthly snapshot contradicted economists' consensus forecast of a 0.3 percent decline after retail sales posted a 0.4 percent drop in December.

The surprisingly positive report appeared to allay concerns that the world's biggest economy is at risk of recession, and helped drive a strong Wall Street stock market rally.

"As the consumer goes, so goes the economy. It appears the consumer may have slowed down, but not left the field of battle," said Joel Naroff, the chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

But others saw scant reason to cheer.

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics said the unexpected sales spurt in January pointed to "stagnation" in the US economy rather than recession.

The euro was also hurt by news that factories and refineries in the 15-nation eurozone had cut back production more than expected in December, a fresh sign of slowing growth.

December industrial output in the eurozone dipped 0.2 percent from November and was up 1.3 percent from a year ago, according to the Eurostat data agency.

The seasonally adjusted figures fell short of market expectations of a monthly rise of 0.6 percent and a 2.3 percent year-on-year gain.

"December's fall in eurozone industrial production suggests that the economy may have slowed a bit more sharply towards the end of last year than previously thought" due to the euro's strength and weaker global demand, said Jennifer McKeown at Capital Economics.

She said business surveys expect the sector to stabilise but it is clear manufacturing will no longer be a growth engine in 2008.

In Britain the pound was stronger across the board after the Bank of England sounded hawkish in its inflation report, saying interest rates were likely to fall at a slower pace than the market currently expected.

In late New York trade, the pound was at 1.9630 dollars, up from 1.9595 late Tuesday.

The dollar was trading at 1.1081 Swiss francs, up from 1.1023.

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